| Preface: Currently in the stage of transition between new and old driving forces, stable growth remains the main policy line. Last year, the steel industry continued to make deep adjustments, and the domestic demand circulation chain still needs to be connected. The high-end manufacturing industry has made significant efforts, and steel mills have actively adjusted their product structure and business models to respond to industry changes. However, the high supply and low demand situation in China continues, and the industry dilemma still exists. In 2025, the market situation will remain relatively stable, and the price difference between high and low points in the market will narrow. As the first year of the "15th Five Year Plan", 2026 will start with the domestic macro environment, domestic steel supply and demand, and market mentality to analyze the trend of steel prices.
1¡¢ Domestic macro environment and policies
1. Consumer demand rebounds
At the beginning of 2026, the domestic CPI data showed a significant increase. Although there were factors such as the rise in some commodity prices during the Spring Festival and the recovery of consumer demand, it also reflected the guidance of policies on a moderate increase in commodity prices. In February, the year-on-year increase in CPI expanded from 0.2% in January to 1.3%, and the month on month increase expanded from 0.2% to 1.0%. With the active and proactive macroeconomic policies and the impact of geopolitical risks, the global inflation rate may have a significant upward trend, and a moderate rebound in domestic CPI is highly likely to occur. The rebound of CPI reflects the gradual recovery of consumer demand, which helps to stabilize macroeconomic expectations. The increase in service prices indicates a stronger willingness of residents to consume, which is conducive to the demand for durable consumer goods. Macro policies that consider reasonable price recovery as an important factor mean that loose monetary policies are expected to continue, providing support for investment in infrastructure and other areas. |
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